mercredi 14 juillet 2010

La tempête du 13 juin menace de déracine l'Olivier

Certes, la discrétion est de mise mais la répétition du cauchemar de 2007 semble pointer le bout de son nez. Après trois semaines, l'informateur Bart De Wever a identifié des convergences entre des partis... non identifiés et a recommandé de ne surtout pas commencer à négocier maintenant, sous peine de conséquences "inimaginables" en cas d'échec. Ca sonne comme un aveu d'impuissance devant une tâche que l'on annonce pourtant cruciale pour l'avenir du pays. Elio Di Rupo a pris le relais (sans doute un classeur avec deux ou trois feuilles, en ce compris la page de garde) pour mener une mission de "préformation"... soit quelque chose qui ne veut rien dire. C'est dire si l'on n'est pas très loin... et peut-être moins loin qu'en 2007. Il y a trois ans, une certitude sortait des urnes: l'orange bleue, que le radicalisme de la N-VA, la volonté inébranlable de Joëlle Milquet de ramener le PS dans le jeu et le très piètre talent de négociateur du très surfait Didier Reynders ont envoyé dans les orties. Les discussions actuelles paraissent se trouver à un stade encore moins avancé: on se demande toujours avec qui on va négocier. Si les partis de la majorité en Communauté flamande sont décidés reproduire leur coalition au fédéral (CD&V, N-VA, sp.a), les partis de l'Olivier francophone sont eux dans la panade. Planter l'Olivier au fédéral offrirait la solution la plus adéquate mais il y a un hic: Groen!. Ecolo, qui a perdu un tiers de son électorat entre juin 2009 et juin 2010, craint comme la peste de revivre le calvaire de l'Arc-en-ciel, et ne souhaite pas se retrouver au pouvoir sans son alter ego flamand, dont la N-VA ne veut pas. A quatre dans une majorité côté flamand, ce n'est pas commode et en plus, ça fait pencher le balancier encore un peu plus à gauche, trop pour des nationalistes flamands pour le moins conservateurs. Ecolo cherche un prétexte, affirment certains. C'est possible. Peut-être veut-il faire monter les enchères comme en 2009 pour obtenir le maximum. Toujours est-il que ce jeu n'est pas du goût d'Elio qui la semaine passée a menacé purement et simplent d'éjecter les Verts de tous les niveaux de pouvoir s'ils continuaient leur cirque. "Choquant", jugent certains écologistes. "Coup de bluff", répondent d'autres. Peut-être, mais c'est dire à quel point la situation est tendue en coulisses: qui aurait imaginé le PS prêt à torpiller comme ça l'Olivier, présenté il y a peu encore comme la majorité idéale? Et pour faire quoi? Ramener le MR à tous les niveaux? L'intéressé ne demanderait pas mieux mais comment vendre ça à l'opinion et surtout faire face à des écologistes dont la posture de martyr décuplera le talent d'opposition? Si Ecolo persiste à refuser, il reste deux hypothèses: le MR reste dans la majorité au fédéral et dans l'opposition en Régions et Communauté. Reynders signe des deux mains mais pas l'autre bord de plus en plus peuplé. Un: Michel, Borsus et d'autres en ont leur claque d'être un pied dedans et un pied dehors. Deux: pas question pour les mêmes de sauver Reynders. Ou alors Ecolo soutient une réforme de l'Etat de l'extérieur... Jouable mais PS et cdH tous seuls ressembleront un peu au CD&V et à l'Open Vld sous la législature précédente et on souhaite bien du plaisir à Ecolo dans les Régions et à la Communauté française. Le risque est grand que socialistes et centristes ne passent plus rien du tout à ces écologistes devant qui ils ont dû s'aplatir il y a à peine un an.

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